Just finished listening to the episode, but I’m at work, sk I’m keep this brief.
Thank you for the very interesting analysis.
I missed the news, so it was a surprise for me!
Unfortunately, this will have a grave impact to Germany and Europe in general, and I worry that will have the effect to push us further into a worse situation.
And finally, thank you also for the very apt and nice and song.
I listened to the episode on a plane today, and I must say I rather agree with your analysis. It doesn’t fit USA’s modus operandi, it doesn’t make sense strategically for Russia, and I didn’t even suspect Ukraine until I listened to the episode because I don’t believe they could have possibly pulled it off.
I also wholeheartedly agree that “cui prodest?” is the most adequate way of solving this puzzle.
However, I must point out that while Russia’s lack of strategic sense in doing a thing like that is obvious, it doesn’t really indemnify Russia per se. Russia has been making moves that make no strategic sense (and are actually a strategic disaster) left right and center lately. One could easily argue the very launch of the Special Military Operation* was strategically insane from the start…
* - being a Russian citizen and a Russian resident I can end up in jail for calling it a war.
Also, forgot to mention: an awesome music track on this one!
Good episode Fab, thanks. My initial view was “it’s the Russians” but I think you’ve looked at all angles and there are several possible scenarios.
You make a good point that if it was Russia and they had been caught red handed, would that be considered a strike on a NATO countries infrastructure - probably yes. I know NATO and Russia have deconfliction teams/channels so “events” can be discussed before they spiral out of control, but quite how that works in practice (other than it happens in private) is anyones guess.